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Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc. (ASTI)·Q2 2015 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2015 revenue was $2.20M, up +235% QoQ and +105% YoY, reflecting a sharp rebound from Q1’s seasonality and logistics headwinds . Operating loss improved to ($6.90M), about ~$1M better than ($7.90M) in Q2 2014 .
  • Management reiterated confidence in distribution expansion and EnerPlex acceptance; FY2015 revenue outlook was framed as “over $10M,” a qualitative narrowing from prior $10M–$12M guidance .
  • H1 2015 revenue reached $2.90M (+57% YoY), with H1 loss from operations improving to ($13.80M) from ($15.50M) in H1 2014 .
  • Key stock narrative drivers: dramatic QoQ growth (+235%) and continued operating loss improvement versus last year, offset by narrowing FY revenue guidance language and lack of EPS/margin disclosure in press releases .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Rapid top-line acceleration: “Reports Revenue of $2.2M, Approximately 235% Growth Quarter-Over-Quarter” and “up approximately 105% from the same period last year” .
  • Operating loss improvement: Loss from operations narrowed to ($6.90M) in Q2 2015 from ($7.90M) in Q2 2014, “an improvement of approximately $1M or 12.6%” .
  • Distribution and brand traction: “With the ongoing expansion of our distribution channels, I am optimistic to set yet another significant revenue milestone of over $10M for fiscal year 2015… accelerating growth and acceptance of the EnerPlex line of products in retail channels” — Victor Lee, CEO .

What Went Wrong

  • Q1 headwinds impacted trajectory: “First quarter results were negatively impacted by the typical seasonality… [and] a prolonged strike at west coast ports… pushing back deliveries into Q2” .
  • Profitability still distant: Despite YoY OI loss improvement, Q2 remained deeply negative at ($6.90M) .
  • Guidance language narrowed: FY2015 revenue outlook shifted from $10M–$12M to “over $10M,” reducing explicit upside range versus prior guidance .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015
Revenue ($USD Millions)$2.40 $0.66 $2.20
QoQ Growth %+118% N/A+235%
YoY Growth %~4x vs Q4 2013 N/A+105%
Operating Income ($USD Millions)N/AN/A($6.90)
EPS (Diluted, $USD)N/AN/AN/A

H1 comparison:

MetricH1 2014H1 2015
Revenue ($USD Millions)$1.80 $2.90
Revenue Growth YoY %N/A+57%
Loss from Operations ($USD Millions)($15.50) ($13.80)
Loss from Operations Improvement vs Prior Year ($USD)N/A+$1.70
Loss from Operations Improvement vs Prior Year (%)N/A+11%

Segment snapshot (where disclosed):

Segment MetricQ4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015
EnerPlex Product Revenue ($USD Millions)$2.30 N/AN/A

Notes:

  • Press releases did not disclose EPS, gross margin, EBIT/EBITDA or detailed segment mix for Q1/Q2; only EnerPlex revenue was provided for Q4 2014 .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY 2015$10M–$12M (100% YoY growth over 2014) “Over $10M” Lowered/narrowed (reduced explicit range and implied midpoint)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q2 2015)Trend
Distribution expansion & retailer penetration“Further expand our distribution channels domestically and internationally” (Q4 2014) ; “Entrance into several new retailers in the first half of the year” (Q1 2015) “Ongoing expansion of our distribution channels… accelerating growth and acceptance of the EnerPlex line” Improving
High-value PV markets (UAVs, portable PV)“Growing acceptance in our focused high-value PV market” (Q4 2014) “PV integrated UAVs and Portable PV power solutions… mature development stage” (Q1 2015) ; “Fully prepared to execute… high-value PV markets” (Q2 2015) Progressing toward commercialization
Supply chain/logisticsN/A (Q4 2014)“Prolonged strike at west coast ports… delays in product delivery for Q1” (Q1 2015) No new constraints mentioned in Q2; normalization implied
SeasonalityN/A (Q4 2014)“First quarter is typically the slowest” (Q1 2015) Rebound evident in Q2 (+235% QoQ)
Manufacturing transition“Transition of some manufacturing to Asia” (Q4 2014) N/APlan referenced in Q4; no update in Q1/Q2
Revenue milestones“First ever $5M annual revenue” (FY2014 milestone) “Reiterates FY2015 $10M–$12M” (Q1) ; “Over $10M” aspiration (Q2) Upward trajectory, but guidance range narrowed in Q2

Management Commentary

  • “I am pleased with the continued growth in the first half of 2015… optimistic to set yet another significant revenue milestone of over $10M for fiscal year 2015. The repositioning of Ascent Solar over the past 3 years is beginning to yield results… accelerating growth and acceptance of the EnerPlex line of products in retail channels.” — Victor Lee, President & CEO .
  • “We are very excited about the increased visibility of our EnerPlex products in growing numbers of reputable retailers… we feel comfortable confirming our previously issued FY 2015 revenue guidance of 100% growth over 2014.” — Victor Lee, Q1 update .
  • “We are extremely encouraged by the rapid growth of EnerPlex and we expect to see sales continue to grow rapidly… growing acceptance in our focused high-value PV market… transition of some manufacturing to Asia.” — Q4/FY2014 release .

Q&A Highlights

  • No analyst Q&A available; no earnings call transcript was found among available Q2 2015 documents.

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q2 2015 EPS and revenue was unavailable to us today due to access limits; as a result, we cannot determine beat/miss versus consensus for this quarter. Where estimates are needed, we default to S&P Global; in this case, values were unavailable.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Momentum inflection: Q2 revenue surged to $2.20M (+235% QoQ, +105% YoY), signaling strong post-Q1 recovery and growing retail traction for EnerPlex .
  • Loss trajectory improving: Q2 operating loss narrowed to ($6.90M), ~$1M better YoY, consistent with scaling and operational efficiencies noted by management .
  • FY outlook narrowed: Guidance language shifted to “over $10M” from $10M–$12M, trimming explicit upside even as revenue velocity improves; monitor H2 execution vs implied ≥$10M target .
  • H1 setup supportive: Back-ordered bookings from Q1 logistics delays, plus new retailer doors, underpin H2 revenue cadence .
  • Strategic dual-track intact: Consumer EnerPlex retail growth and progressing high-value PV applications (e.g., UAVs) broaden potential revenue streams .
  • Disclosure gaps: Press releases did not provide EPS/margins; without consensus estimates, near-term beat/miss narrative is constrained—watch for 10-Q filings and future updates for margin cadence and cash metrics .
  • Trading lens: The quarter’s extreme QoQ growth and improved OI are positive momentum signals; balancing factor is the narrowed FY language. Near-term catalyst path = confirmation of H2 ramp and any tangible wins in high-value PV programs .